The 2023 Grain Season – Harvest is just about done and dusted for another year.
For the majority of growers across the Western Australian grain belt, harvesting has finished well before Christmas. For most, this is the earliest finish to harvest for a very long time.
Actual grain yields for all crops have fallen away as harvest has progressed to the southern regions of the state in the last month. Production may not reach the 14.5 million tonnes for all grains across Western Australia mentioned in last month’s report as the tight spring and frost has taken more of the top off production in the southern regions than was estimated prior to harvest. The impact of frost in particular has been greater than expected.
Whilst actual grain yields have been well below recent averages for most growers, grain quality has been well above what was expected prior to and at the start of harvest. A much higher proportion of loads have made the premium grades than was expected. To date, around 80 per cent of wheat deliveries have made the premium grades with the remainder of deliveries falling out of the higher quality grades due to high screenings. Around 75 per cent of wheat deliveries have made hard grades this year of some sort, whilst in 2022 the majority of the wheat production was at the lower end of the protein scale, with virtually none achieving the hard grades.
The stark difference in the growing season between 2022 and 2023 could not have been more dramatic, with 40 per cent less grain produced in 2023 than 2022. The high proportion of higher protein wheat produced in 2023 was of course due mainly to the season, however in previous low production years, there has never been such a high proportion of wheat reaching these higher protein levels. Growers generally applied more fertiliser early in the season to compensate for the previous two big production years, but then pulled back on planned in-season applications as it became obvious the season was cutting out. The good levels of fertiliser applied up front, then little in the growing season obviously contributed to adequate crop health without pushing top growth to a point where the plants crashed in the spring. Whilst there was plenty of grain delivered with high screenings, the switch in management during the season resulted in a lot less pinched grain than was expected.
The percentage of barley making malt grades has been lower than in recent years, with most failing to achieve malt due to low retention. The majority of the premium malt barley was produced in the traditional malt belt of the Midlands region that, for the most part, had a very low rainfall year.
Canola grain production in 2023 was only 20 per cent lower than 2022 on a reduced area of 14 per cent from 2022. Most of the reduction in plantings were in the regions that had a poor start and ended up with a very poor year. Oil percentages were mostly in the low 40’s rather than the high 40’s as seen in 2022, reflecting the quick accumulation period in 2023, rather than the slow cool grain fill periods of the last couple of years.
Seasonal Outlook
Ian Foster, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development
Seasonal climate December 2023
Rainfall
November rain was mixed, with some thunderstorms and damaged crops, while the south-west remained dry. Seasonal rain April to November was much drier than normal for much of WA.
Forecast
An El Nino event is established in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to persist into autumn 2024. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in the tropical Indian Ocean has passed its peak and should continue to decay in December.
These events are also influencing an expected weaker Australian monsoon, as well as a prediction of fewer than normal tropical cyclones for the 2023-24 season.
The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook for early 2024 indicates below normal rain is likely over much of WA, see Figure 1. Seasonal thunderstorms are still likely to occur, but they may be limited in occurrence.
Figure 1: Rainfall outlook for January to March 2024. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology 2023)
Temperature
Seasonal temperatures were markedly different between the start and finish of the growing season. The first part was much cooler than normal, while the finish was very warm.
Predictions of above normal temperatures continue over summer. Chances of unusually high maximum temperatures are up to four times higher than normal over summer for most of western and central WA, see Figure 2. Minimum temperatures are also expected to be much warmer than normal.
Figure 2: Chances of unusually high maximum air temperature over January to March 2024. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology 2023)
Additional information is available from:
BoM: Decile rainfall for April to November 2023
BoM: Rainfall outlook for the next week
BoM: Seasonal Rainfall Outlook
Geraldton Zone
Harvest finished up a couple of weeks ago with the earliest wrap up in memory. Machines are already serviced and back in the shed.
The final tonnage across the zone was higher than was expected just prior to harvest. The bulk of production in the zone was wheat, with half the canola produced compared to 2022 and 80 per cent less lupins produced than 2022.
The opening of utility hard stacks for the high screenings, high protein wheat added a lot of value to growers in the region. In previous years, this grain would not have made feed, so the value add of the new segregations has been a life saver for many growers. There ended up being a similar tonnage of premium hard grades as utility hard grades, which is incredible considering most regions in the zone received half to a third of normal rainfall. At the start of harvest, it was thought that most high protein wheat would have high screenings.
Virtually all canola delivered in the Geraldton Port Zone are now hybrid varieties that have more vigour than the open pollenated Triazine Tolerant varieties that dominated plantings ten years ago. The hybrid varieties are contributing to more stable and higher yields particularly in dry years and the 220,000 tonnes of canola produced in one of the driest years on record is a testament to the canola system that has been developed over the past few years – it’s definitely becoming a less risky crop in low rainfall areas.
Looking forward, it’s anticipated canola hectares will increase and traditional lupin areas along the coast will stick with lupins. Moving further inland, wheat and canola will make up the bulk of the zone as the majority of barley didn’t tolerate the extremely dry conditions this year and died off.
Most growers are now just waiting for the fishing season to open and the summer rain to get some deep ripping done. Depending on the soil type and location, deep ripping cycle times are becoming shorter. On high producing, sand plain soils, growers are ripping every third year, particularly for paddocks with canola stubble going back into wheat. Even in a low-income year, deep ripping has been responsible for a one tonne crop response in a dry year. Canola yields are creeping closer to wheat yields, with around 600kg/ha of wheat and 500kg/ha of canola produced on only 100mL rain in 2023, so it’s now a critical part of the annual program.
Growers are happy to see the end of 2023 and are looking forward to moving onto a new season.
Kwinana Zone
Kwinana North Midlands
Harvest is wrapped up for most, with varying final yields resulting. Through the eastern side, up through the north, radiating out in an arc from Miling through Ballidu and Wongan Hills, yields were less than predicted with some being a pretty sobering 0.5 – 1t/ha.
Better quality sandplain and duplexes as well as areas with good lime and amelioration have been standouts. However, heavy country and weak sandplain that hasn’t been ameliorated or has been neglected has struggled and contributed to the below average yields.
Overall, growers throughout the zone are amazed with what has been grown considering the scarcity of rain during this season. Where there was upwards of 150mL of rain, some pretty amazing yield results were seen, particularly through the western areas around Dandaragan and Badgingarra. Areas that received under 150mL of rain have really battled.
Wheat quality has been outstanding, with generally high protein and more H1 and H2 being delivered than ever before. The late rain in September has done nothing for yield but has saved the region on quality. Although screenings and hectolitre weight have been good, most noodles have gone Noodle 2 due to screenings and/or high protein.
Barley has been a standout this harvest with good yields and great quality in terms of hectolitre weight. Protein has been okay, but retention is the issue for some. Overall, there has been a pretty good strike rate into malt for barley growers in the zone.
Canola in the better rainfall belt was so-so to good, but low rainfall areas in the eastern and north-eastern fringe fell into the 400kg/ha – 500kg/ha bracket. Frost in September did a fair bit more damage than was predicted and coupled with the low rainfall in August, knocked the top off the yield.
Growers are reducing sheep numbers, so that will increase cropping hectares in 2024 and potentially the barley area will creep back up, but wheat will hold firm. After the results we’ve seen this year, if there is no rain over the coming summer months, growers will likely choose to sow wheat rather than canola to reduce risk in those low rainfall areas.
Lupins performed well in the region in 2023. Growers that have stuck with oats whilst markets have been tight in the last few years will stay with oats, although those that chose to replace oats with canola or barley are unlikely to return to oats even with the export hay market opening up recently
Kwinana South
The Kwinana South region was the sweet spot in 2023, with all crops finishing up close to recent season averages rather than long term averages, as was the case for the majority of the grain belt. The region generally had a later start than other areas, although once the season kicked off it continued to rain at regular intervals and apart from some water logging in the very wet areas around Brookton and Quairading, there were not the usual holes in paddocks from too much rain.
The high potential that was there going into spring did come off a bit with most crops due to very little rain during the grain fill period, although most growers were very happy with the end result. Wheat yields of three tonnes per hectare were commonplace as was four tonnes per hectare of barley, and canola was mostly in the range of between two and three tonnes per hectare.
Grain quality was generally very good, except in situations where growers kept fertilising thinking the season might improve. These crops were too bulked up for the eventual rain that did fall, and crops crashed, ending up with very high screenings.
Kwinana North East
Eastern parts of the zone are 95-99 per cent done with harvest for the year, though there are a few still going.
Barley crops that weren’t affected by the September frost yielded above expectation with good grain quality and much of it going malt.
Wheat looked about 300kg/ha – 400kg/ha better than the actual yields, it just didn’t fill out as well as was expected. Most of the wheat ended up with low screenings as crops seemed to have regulated themselves nicely through the end of the season. Protein has been higher than expected, most likely because of a bias towards increased nitrogen rates over the past two years and the short sharp end to the season.
Canola has been a mixed bag, but on average was pretty disappointing, mainly due to the unanticipated frost damage. The September frost hit at the vegetative stage when the canola was just flowering. There was a lot of reshoot green undergrowth and rain later in the season, resulting in lots of green canola come harvest time. Oil percentages have been well down, hand in hand with the warm dry, quick end to the season.
Lupins ended up with reasonable average yields and prices in the higher end of the decile range have made lupins appealing again going into 2024.
The small amount of rain during the harvest period has allowed some growers to start deep ripping already. Most in the northern areas of the region are waiting for summer rain before commencing deep ripping programs.
Some growers will pivot back into oats or lupins next year, but everyone is wary that if they all make that move, it won’t be so lucrative. Traditional oats growers generally stick to the plan year-in year-out, rather than jumping in just because prices are good. Those who have persisted with hay are stable and whilst some will make an opportunistic move into the hay market next year, it’s anticipated there will only be a small increase in hay areas in the zone. Gaining entry to the market is difficult due to the capital cost of machinery, which limits many growers from dabbling in the hay trade.
The wheat/barley split is expected to be about the same as prices are similar, however, low rainfall over the summer months could impact this. After two to three years of canola, farmers are in a good position to run an increase in cereal hectares.
Albany Zone
Albany West
The short, dry end to the season has really affected yield and quality across all crops, however, protein has been good across the board. Grain yields have been quite variable within the region this year with some having good yields and some having very poor yields Overall, most growers are down on what was expected prior to harvest commencing.
Most wheat has been exceptionally good quality in terms of protein and grain weight, although screenings were nudging up towards 10 per cent, possibly because of the pinching off from the dry conditions. Hard wheat has been going APW and APW1. The shorter season wheat varieties have maintained yield and colour while the longer season varieties have really suffered. Most noodle wheat went Noodle 2 due to screenings and some are pushing for noodles to be cleaned to go Noodle 1 as the price spread difference may warrant the cost and time to clean.
Interestingly, screenings in barley have been very low, but low grain weight has resulted in most loads dropping into the feed stack.
Canola has had a difficult year with crop yields ranging from 1.4 to 3t/ha. Soil type seems to have made the difference with the deeper more fertile soils holding up in the dry spring, whilst the shallower and heaver soils were badly affected by the quick season cut out. Terrible results have been seen for shorter season canola varieties. They were a good 500kg below the longer season varieties, possibly due to the frost in early September that damaged the canola a lot more than originally thought.
This season has identified which soil types perform well with gravels showing lower yield and higher screenings whereas, on the softer loams, quality increased but not necessarily yield. Where yields were higher in wheat and barley, grain weight and screenings dropped off.
The five years in a row of exceptional yields was thought to be the new norm and this year was a reality check.
Looking towards next season, cropping hectares will go up due to growers reducing sheep numbers. Wheat has generally outperformed barley in the last two years and growers were dropping barley in favour of wheat, whilst this year has seen a swing back to higher grain yields in barley.
Albany South
The erratic nature of the season was the driver of the final outcome for the region. Scattered early rain in late March to early April, and the forecast April rains that did not occur, followed by a very dry May and a massive rain event on 31 May to 1 June, resulted in a lot of country being waterlogged from June through mid to late August. This was backed up with three extremely hot days in September. The region did not receive the usual rain after hot days in September, and had a very dry and windy October, which further pushed high water use for crops trying to finish, and made it very challenging for crop growth. The below average and variable results for the region tell the story of the year.
Wheat yields were below expectations across the whole zone. The lower end of yields was back to and below 10-year averages. This was very pronounced with time of sowing, with crops in the Borden – Gairdner area yielding 2.2 - 3.5t/ha sown early and 1.8-2.4t/ha sown late May. Around the Kendenup – Wellstead area, grain yields were 4.0 - 5.8t/ha sown early and 2.8 -3.5t/ha sown late.
Protein was higher than normal by about 2 per cent. Screenings were also high with a good proportion above 10 per cent which led to growers cleaning grain to hit the higher grades.
Barley yields were highly variable depending on time of sowing, rotation and water logging. Many barley crops were able to emerge in early May and that corresponded with some very good yields. For example around Borden – Gairdner, barley yielded around 3.0 - 4.5t/ha sown early and 2.0 - 2.5t/ha sown late May. Around the Kendenup – Wellstead area, barley yielded between 4.0 - 5.5t/ha sown early, and 2.8 - 3.5t/ha sown late.
Disease in barley was the lowest for 10 years. Many crops from Borden to Gairdner did not receive a foliar fungicide. Grain quality in barley generally had low retentions of around 40-60 per cent, but low screenings of 5-20 per cent. High protein was an issue with many greater than 11.5 per cent. Grain weight was generally okay.
Canola crops in mid spring were thought to be the least impacted by the season, due to early sowing and therefore early finish, but many crops across all areas were disappointing, but still better than in other port zones. Around the Borden – Gairdner area, grain yields fluctuated from 0.3 - 2.8t/ha and around Kendenup – Wellstead, grain yields were 1.5 - 2.5t/ha which was 0.5 - 1.0 tonnes down on the five-year average across the coastal strip.
Seed quality had an impact on canola yields. Issues from cotyledon malformation, vigour (affecting robustness with water logging and then forced early flowering), lack of herbicide resistance, off-types (up to 6 per cent causing issues at harvest) across many of the top planted varieties all contributed to disappointing yields. Early sowing and emergence was the key to higher grain yields in canola this year as it was in wheat and barley. Oil percentage in canola varied widely with some in the low 40’s and some from coastal areas in the high 40’s.
Albany East (Lakes Region)
Harvest is pretty much done and dusted with only a few growers still going, but these are due to finish up this week. Generally speaking, with the amount of rain that fell in the growing season, everyone is quite happy with the year.
The Albany Port side of the zone saw an increase in hard wheat this season. However, areas around Lake King saw high screenings in wheat, and further south and west a lot of low protein wheat was delivered.
All yields are below average, as expected, but considering the rain everyone is happy with their yields. Areas south of Lake King, with less than 200mL rain for the year, still saw yields of around 2t/ha for cereals. There was slightly more frost damage in the cereals than was originally thought, particularly in barley.
Hail in the north and east Lakes, through Hyden and Lake King, caused 50 – 90 per cent damage in isolated patches, but some are seeing damage through the whole paddock. Interestingly, canola varieties with the PodGuard® trait handled the hail better than other varieties.
In terms of quality, it was anticipated there would be a lot of light weight oats around. Instead, a lot of oats have been going Oat 2 due to high screenings rather than blowing out to drop into feed. There is not as much malt barley as first thought, mainly due to protein and screenings.
Planning for next season has begun with lime and deep ripping on the schedule for some growers.
With oat hay exports to China resuming, planned hay areas will probably still be the same as we saw this year. Traditional hay growers who sowed canola this season will most likely stick with canola next season. Growers who weren’t fully committed to the hay game have opted for the canola route, whereas the hard-core hay export growers will likely increase their area a little bit.
A lot of growers are barley dominant, particularly in the Lakes area, and the split between wheat and barley is likely to be similar again in 2024.
Esperance Zone
To the east of Esperance, yields were better due to more rain, with most being above average. On the western side where it was waterlogged and then became very dry, yields didn’t reach recent grain yield potential. Further north where they had very little rain, yields were quite poor.
This season boasts the highest quality wheat we’ve seen in years, with most going H1 and H2 down to APW. The Utility Hard grades were utilised in the Mallie, north of Scaddan, Grass Patch, through Cascades and up to Salmon Gums. The eastern side had a bit more rain, so the quality seen in that region was very good too. Down on the coast saw some wheat going H2, which is nearly unheard of, but most wheat in this area went APW.
There is a noticeable split in the performance of the main wheat varieties, with Calibre falling out of the higher grades due to high screenings, whereas Scepter generally held up better.
Barley was one of the shining lights for the year. Those who stuck with barley are happy they did, with most malt coming from the east side of town, through Beaumont, Harwick and Mount Nay. On the west side, only a few loads made malt, mainly due to retention and protein. Really late sown barley wasn’t as successful as previous years due to the low rainfall.
Expectations for next season indicate barely hectares may increase, but those who are out will most likely stay out now they’ve gone into canola, unless canola prices drop. Those who dropped back their barley area around Cascades, will probably increase next year if prices stay firm.
Hybrid canola hectares are increasing every year, and it’s anticipated it will increase again next year. Two years of wet conditions with poor weed control mean there are still pretty big weed burdens hanging around, so the stacked-herbicide tolerant canola is assisting in reducing the Clethodim use to every second year.
Deep ripping is on the cards for this summer, particularly where those paddocks missed out due to long delayed harvests in previous seasons.
There are a few growers wanting to get back into the lentils following a big drop off in area planted in recent years. A handful of growers are sticking with them, and it has been quite profitable for the ones who can store on farm and sell when the prices firm.
There are a few issues throughout the zone with barley, mainly disease and mice, but it will still continue to be an option for growers for spread of risk. The split between wheat and barley is expected to remain the same in 2024.